Calling it now.

Since the attacks on the American embassies in Egypt and Libya are reminiscent of the attacks on the American embassy in Iran in 1979, here’s my paranoid election-related prediction of the week:

If Obama loses (my finely tuned prediction algorithm currently places him at a 54.7% probability of reelection), then either Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, Condi Rice, George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, Karl Rove, or some sordid combination of them will be accused of having engineered the September Surprise. “Romney made a deal with the Egyptians [or Libyans or Iranians or Israelis or Martians or fill in whomever your little heart desires] in order to make Obama look wimpy and weak. Romney should be tried for treason.”

If Egypt and/or Libya calm down at any point after the election, that will be construed as proof of a conspiracy. “Romney paid their leaders to incite violence juuust long enough to get Obama out of office,” they’ll say. They’ll follow up with something like “The stability that Egypt [and/or Libya] now enjoys is because of Obama’s earlier work.” The clincher will be when American companies begin investing in Egypt/Libya/both. “The Republicans found a way to pay them off! It’s Reagan, Bush and the CIA all over again!”

They’ll continue with something along the lines of “C’mon, it was on 9/11! That can’t be coincidence!” They’ll find evidence that American businessmen flew out of whatever Middle Eastern country– doesn’t have to be Egypt or Libya– a few days before the attacks occurred, and that’ll be proof that Karl Rove channelled Lee Atwater and Bill Casey and sold meth to the Muslim Brotherhood and used the cash to fund Venezuelan rebels in an effort to overthrow Chavez. There’ll even be a segment about it on Nightline in 10 years, which will be all the proof anyone needs.

Of course, if things go even crazier in Egypt and/or Libya at any point after the election, that will also be construed as proof of a much simpler conspiracy: “Obama was making progress toward peace and then the Republicans undercut him and ruined the whole entire Middle East forever! And they did it just to beat Obama!” And so on.

Dunno whether I’m the first to make this prediction in the wake of yesterday’s attack. I’d like to think that, by making this prediction, I’m not giving people enough credit. We’ll see.

4 comments

  1. Cognitive dissonance can work both ways. It is extremely difficult to maintain a vigilantly open mind. Whatever your dominant perspective or worldview happens to be, it is inevitable that you will sometimes use rationalizations in order to save the time or mental stress of dealing with conflicting information. Cognitive dissonance is actually a necessary and natural mental function, but it is also a phenomenon that we should be aware of, in ourselves and others, as it is a process that does not always serve us well in the quest for objectivity and truth.

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